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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2073-2089, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2073-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
04 Apr 2018
Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios
Alexander Gelfan1,2, Vsevolod Moreydo1, Yury Motovilov1, and Dimitri P. Solomatine1,3,4 1Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Watershed Hydrology Lab., Moscow, Russia
2Moscow State University, Geographical Department, Moscow, Russia
3IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Chair of Hydroinformatics, Delft, the Netherlands
4Delft University of Technology, Water Resources Section, Delft, the Netherlands
Abstract. A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April–June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.
Citation: Gelfan, A., Moreydo, V., Motovilov, Y., and Solomatine, D. P.: Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2073-2089, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2073-2018, 2018.
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Short summary
We describe a forecasting procedure that is based on a semi-distributed hydrological model using two types of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the ESP methodology, and synthetic weather data, simulated by a weather generator. We compare the described methodology with the regression-based operational forecasts that are currently in practice and show the increased informational content of the ensemble-based forecasts.
We describe a forecasting procedure that is based on a semi-distributed hydrological model using...
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