Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018
Research article
 | 
11 Apr 2018
Research article |  | 11 Apr 2018

Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management

Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov

Related authors

Technical Note: Resolution enhancement of flood inundation grids
Seth Bryant, Guy Schumann, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 575–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-575-2024, 2024
Short summary
Brief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in Germany
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
Short summary
Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta
Heiko Apel, Mai Khiem, Nguyen Hong Quan, and To Quang Toan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
Short summary
How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Björn Guse, Heiko Apel, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Agaltseva, N. A., Borovikova, L. N., and Konovalov, V. G.: Automated system of runoff forecasting for the Amudarya River basin, in: Destructive Water: Water-Caused Natural Disasters, their Abatement and Control, Anaheim, California, 193–201, 1997. 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Climate, snow cover, glaciers, and runoff in the Tien Shan, Central Asia, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 31, 1113–1129, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb03426.x, 1995. 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Melack, J. M.: Precipitation, melt and runoff in the northern Tien Shan, J. Hydrol., 186, 229–251, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03022-3, 1996. 
Aizen, V. B., Aizen, E. M., and Kuzmichonok, V. A.: Glaciers and hydrological changes in the Tien Shan: simulation and prediction, Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 045019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045019, 2007. 
Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J.: Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan, J. Hydrol., 361, 10–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.017, 2008. 
Download
Short summary
Central Asia crucially depends on water resources supplied by snow melt in the mountains during summer. To support water resources management we propose a generic tool for statistical forecasts of seasonal discharge based on multiple linear regressions. The predictors are observed precipitation and temperature, snow coverage, and discharge. The automatically derived models for 13 different catchments provided very skilful forecasts in April, and acceptable forecasts in January.