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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891-2901, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2891-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
16 May 2018
Hydro-stochastic interpolation coupling with the Budyko approach for prediction of mean annual runoff
Ning Qiu1,2, Xi Chen4,1,2, Qi Hu3, Jintao Liu1,2, Richao Huang1,2, and Man Gao4,1,2 1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China
2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China
3School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA
4Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Abstract. The hydro-stochastic interpolation method based on traditional block Kriging has often been used to predict mean annual runoff in river basins. A caveat in such a method is that the statistic technique provides little physical insight into relationships between the runoff and its external forcing, such as the climate and land cover. In this study, the spatial runoff is decomposed into a deterministic trend and deviations from it caused by stochastic fluctuations. The former is described by the Budyko method (Fu's equation) and the latter by stochastic interpolation. This coupled method is applied to spatially interpolate runoff in the Huaihe River basin of China. Results show that the coupled method significantly improves the prediction accuracy of the mean annual runoff. The error of the predicted runoff by the coupled method is much smaller than that from the Budyko method and the hydro-stochastic interpolation method alone. The determination coefficient for cross-validation, Rcv2, from the coupled method is 0.87, larger than 0.81 from the Budyko method and 0.71 from the hydro-stochastic interpolation. Further comparisons indicate that the coupled method has also reduced the error in overestimating low runoff and underestimating high runoff suffered by the other two methods. These results confirm that the coupled method offers an effective and more accurate way to predict the mean annual runoff in river basins.
Citation: Qiu, N., Chen, X., Hu, Q., Liu, J., Huang, R., and Gao, M.: Hydro-stochastic interpolation coupling with the Budyko approach for prediction of mean annual runoff, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891-2901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2891-2018, 2018.
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Short summary
The spatial runoff is decomposed into a deterministic trend and deviations from it caused by stochastic fluctuations which are described by Budyko method and stochastic interpolation. This coupled method is applied to spatially interpolate runoff in the Huaihe River basin of China. Results show that the coupled method reduces the error in overestimating low runoff and underestimating high runoff suffered by the other two methods, so it improves the prediction accuracy of the mean annual runoff.
The spatial runoff is decomposed into a deterministic trend and deviations from it caused by...
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