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HESS | Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2953–2970, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2953–2970, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 May 2018

Research article | 18 May 2018

The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers

Kean Foster et al.
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Cited articles  
Arheimer, B., Lindström, G., and Olsson, J.: A systematic review of sensitivities in the Swedish flood-forecasting system, Atmos. Res., 100, 275–284, 2011. 
Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L., and Pappenberger, F.: An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1715–1729, 2017. 
Beckers, J. V. L., Weerts, A. H., Tijdeman, E., and Welles, E.: ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3277–3287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016, 2016. 
Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8238–8259, 2016. 
Berg, P., Bosshard, T., and Yang, W.: Model consistent pseudo-observations of precipitation and their use for bias correcting regional climate models, Climate, 3, 118–132, 2015. 
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Short summary
Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir management is required for optimal production throughout the year and accurate seasonal forecasts are essential for this. In this work we develop a seasonal forecast prototype and evaluate its ability to predict spring flood volumes, a critical variable, in northern Sweden. We show that the prototype is better than the operational system on average 65 % of the time and reduces the volume error by ~ 6 %.
Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir...
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