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HESS | Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 529–546, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-529-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 529–546, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-529-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 22 Jan 2018

Research article | 22 Jan 2018

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China

Zhenchen Liu et al.
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Manuscript under review for ESD
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Cited articles  
Afifi, A. A. and Azen, S. P.: Statistical analysis: a computer oriented approach, Academic press, 1972. 
AghaKouchak, A.: A baseline probabilistic drought forecasting framework using standardized soil moisture index: application to the 2012 United States drought, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2485–2492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2485-2014, 2014. 
AghaKouchak, A.: A multivariate approach for persistence-based drought prediction: Application to the 2010-2011 East Africa drought, J. Hydrol., 526, 127–135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.063, 2015. 
Aviles, A., Celleri, R., Paredes, J., and Solera, A.: Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS, Water Resour. Manag., 29, 1949–1963, 10.1007/s11269-015-0921-2, 2015. 
Aviles, A., Celleri, R., Solera, A., and Paredes, J.: Probabilistic Forecasting of Drought Events Using Markov Chain- and Bayesian Network-Based Models: A Case Study of an Andean Regulated River Basin, Water, 8, 16 pp., https://doi.org/10.3390/w8020037, 2016. 
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Process prediction of seasonal drought is the goal of our study. We developed a drought prediction model based on atmospheric–oceanic anomalies. It is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between atmospheric–oceanic anomalies and precipitation anomalies, forced by seasonal climate forecast models. It can predict seasonal drought development very well, despite its weakness in drought severity.
Process prediction of seasonal drought is the goal of our study. We developed a drought...
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