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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 22, issue 11 | Copyright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5741-5758, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5741-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 08 Nov 2018

Research article | 08 Nov 2018

Bias correction of simulated historical daily streamflow at ungauged locations by using independently estimated flow duration curves

William H. Farmer1, Thomas M. Over2, and Julie E. Kiang3 William H. Farmer et al.
  • 1US Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado, USA
  • 2US Geological Survey, Urbana, Illinois, USA
  • 3US Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, USA

Abstract. In many simulations of historical daily streamflow distributional bias arising from the distributional properties of residuals has been noted. This bias often presents itself as an underestimation of high streamflow and an overestimation of low streamflow. Here, 1168 streamgages across the conterminous USA, having at least 14 complete water years of daily data between 1 October 1980 and 30 September 2013, are used to explore a method for rescaling simulated streamflow to correct the distributional bias. Based on an existing approach that separates the simulated streamflow into components of temporal structure and magnitude, the temporal structure is converted to simulated nonexceedance probabilities and the magnitudes are rescaled using an independently estimated flow duration curve (FDC) derived from regional regression. In this study, this method is applied to a pooled ordinary kriging simulation of daily streamflow coupled with FDCs estimated by regional regression on basin characteristics. The improvement in the representation of high and low streamflows is correlated with the accuracy and unbiasedness of the estimated FDC. The method is verified by using an idealized case; however, with the introduction of regionally regressed FDCs developed for this study, the method is only useful overall for the upper tails, which are more accurately and unbiasedly estimated than the lower tails. It remains for future work to determine how accurate the estimated FDCs need to be to be useful for bias correction without unduly reducing accuracy. In addition to its potential efficacy for distributional bias correction, this particular instance of the methodology also represents a generalization of nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using FDCs. Rather than relying on single index stations, as is commonly done to reflect streamflow timing, this approach to simulation leverages geostatistical tools to allow a region of neighbors to reflect streamflow timing.

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This work observes that the result of streamflow simulation is often biased, especially with regards to extreme events, and proposes a novel technique to reduce this bias. By using parallel simulations of relative streamflow timing (sequencing) and the distribution of streamflow (magnitude), severe biases can be mitigated. Reducing this bias allows for improved utility of streamflow simulation for water resources management.
This work observes that the result of streamflow simulation is often biased, especially with...
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