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HESS | Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6591–6609, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6591-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6591–6609, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6591-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 21 Dec 2018

Research article | 21 Dec 2018

On the skill of raw and post-processed ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts in Denmark

Diana Lucatero et al.

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Seasonal streamflow forecasts in the Ahlergaarde catchment, Denmark: the effect of preprocessing and post-processing on skill and statistical consistency
Diana Lucatero, Henrik Madsen, Jens C. Refsgaard, Jacob Kidmose, and Karsten H. Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3601–3617, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3601-2018, 2018
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Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
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Cited articles

Anderson, T. W. and Darling, D. A.: Asymptotic theory of certain “goodness of fit” criteria based on stochastic processes, The annals of mathematical statistics, 23, 193–212, 1952. 
Clark, M., Gangopadhyay, S., Hay, L., Rajagopalan, B., and Wilby, R.: The Schaake Shuffle: A Method for Reconstructing Space–Time Variability in Forecasted Precipitation and Temperature Fields, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 243–262, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0243:TSSAMF>2.0.CO;2, 2004. 
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M.-H., and Pappenberger, F.: Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016. 
Dessai, S. and Soares, M. B.: European Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale. Deliverable 12.1 Systematic literature review on the use of seasonal to decadal climate and climate impacts predictions across European sectors, Euporias, 12, 1–26, available at: http://www.euporias.eu/system/files/D12.1_Final.pdf (last access: 1 June 2017), 2013. 
Di Giuseppe, F., Molteni, F., and Tompkins, A. M.: A rainfall calibration methodology for impacts modelling based on spatial mapping, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 1389–1401, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2019, 2013. 
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Short summary
The present study evaluates the skill of a seasonal forecasting system for hydrological relevant variables in Denmark. Linear scaling and quantile mapping were used to correct the forecasts. Uncorrected forecasts tend to be more skillful than climatology, in general, for the first month lead time only. Corrected forecasts show a reduced bias in the mean; are more consistent; and show a level of accuracy that is closer to, although no higher than, that of ensemble climatology, in general.
The present study evaluates the skill of a seasonal forecasting system for hydrological relevant...
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