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HESS | Articles | Volume 23, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 371–391, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-371-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 371–391, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-371-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 22 Jan 2019

Research article | 22 Jan 2019

Seasonal streamflow forecasts for Europe – Part 2: Sources of skill

Wouter Greuell et al.
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Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Baehr, J., Fröhlich, K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D. I., Kornblueh, L., Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S., and Müller, W. A.: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model, Clim. Dynam., 44, 2723–2735, 2015. 
Bazile, R., Boucher, M.-A., Perreault, L., and Leconte, R.: Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, 2017. 
Bierkens, M. F. P. and van Beek, L. P. H.: Seasonal predictability of European discharge: NAO and hydrological response time, J. Hydrometerol., 10, 953–968, 2009. 
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M. H., Pappenberger, F., Andel, S. J. V., and Wood, A. W.: An experiment on risk-based decision-making in water management using monthly probabilistic forecasts, B. Am. Meterol. Soc., 97, 541–551, 2016. 
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This paper explains why forecasts of river flow in Europe for a time between 1 and 7 months have skill. The forecasts were produced with a water model. The model reacts to forecasts of weather variables like precipitation, which tend to have little skill and hence hardly contribute to the skill in the forecasts of river flow. The paper shows when and where these forecasts have skill; this is mostly due to knowledge of the amount of water in the soil at the time the forecasts are made.
This paper explains why forecasts of river flow in Europe for a time between 1 and 7 months have...
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