Articles | Volume 24, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 01 Apr 2020
| 01 Apr 2020
Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Fang Zhao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Seth Westra
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Michael Leonard
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Lukas Gudmundsson
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of
Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange
Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Jinfeng Chang
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ/IPSL, Université Paris Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette,
France
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA-CNRS-UVSQ/IPSL, Université Paris Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette,
France
Dieter Gerten
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Simon N. Gosling
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
Hannes Müller Schmied
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Tobias Stacke
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG),
Geesthacht, Germany
Camelia-Eliza Telteu
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Yoshihide Wada
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria
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- Floods differ in a warmer future C. Wasko 10.1038/s41558-022-01541-z
- Climate change exacerbates the compounding of heat stress and flooding in the mid‐latitudes D. Treppiedi et al. 10.1002/joc.8453
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- A Non-Stationarity Analysis of Annual Maximum Floods: A Case Study of Campaspe River Basin, Australia A. Yilmaz et al. 10.3390/w15203683
- Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming J. Thompson et al. 10.1029/2021EF002048
- Changes in Magnitude and Shifts in Timing of Australian Flood Peaks M. Bari et al. 10.3390/w15203665
- To What Extent Are Changes in Flood Magnitude Related to Changes in Precipitation Extremes? H. Do et al. 10.1029/2020GL088684
- Future Changes in Hydro-Climatic Extremes across Vietnam: Evidence from a Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model Forced by Downscaled CMIP6 Climate Data H. Do et al. 10.3390/w16050674
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- The Roles of Catchment Characteristics in Precipitation Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework J. Liu & Y. You 10.1029/2021JD035168
- Climate More Important for Chinese Flood Changes Than Reservoirs and Land Use L. Yang et al. 10.1029/2021GL093061
- Revisiting hydro-ecological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain wetland via hydrological / hydraulic modelling and the UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios J. Thompson et al. 10.1007/s13157-023-01708-0
- Extreme value analysis dilemma for climate change impact assessment on global flood and extreme precipitation H. Tabari 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125932
- Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards G. Blöschl 10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022
- Application of novel artificial bee colony optimized ANN and data preprocessing techniques for monthly streamflow estimation O. Katipoğlu et al. 10.1007/s11356-023-28678-4
- Shifting in the global flood timing G. Fang et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-23748-y
- ADHI: the African Database of Hydrometric Indices (1950–2018) Y. Tramblay et al. 10.5194/essd-13-1547-2021
- Review: Can temperature be used to inform changes to flood extremes with global warming? C. Wasko 10.1098/rsta.2019.0551
- Monitoring and evaluation of the passage of high water and floods in 2018 in the Amur region T. Molchanova et al. 10.1051/e3sconf/202337101083
- Diverging projections for flood and rainfall frequency curves C. Wasko et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129403
- Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change C. Wasko et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126994
- Multivariate Analysis of Compound Flood Hazard Across Canada's Atlantic, Pacific and Great Lakes Coastal Areas F. Jalili Pirani & M. Najafi 10.1029/2022EF002655
- Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction B. Renard et al. 10.1029/2022JD037908
- Evaluating a landscape-scale daily water balance model to support spatially continuous representation of flow intermittency throughout stream networks S. Yu et al. 10.5194/hess-24-5279-2020
- Global-scale characterization of streamflow extremes S. Kuntla et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128668
- Contemporary Trends in High and Low River Flows in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan M. Yaseen et al. 10.3390/w14030337
- Amplified Drought and Flood Risk Under Future Socioeconomic and Climatic Change H. Tabari et al. 10.1029/2021EF002295
- HydroPy (v1.0): a new global hydrology model written in Python T. Stacke & S. Hagemann 10.5194/gmd-14-7795-2021
- Observed changes in flood hazard in Africa Y. Tramblay et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abb90b
- Changes in Precipitation Extremes across Vietnam and Its Relationships with Teleconnection Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere Q. Do et al. 10.3390/w12061646
- Flood Simulation Analysis of the Biliu River Basin Based on the MIKE Model Q. Liu et al. 10.1155/2021/8827046
- Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources R. Dankers & Z. Kundzewicz 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4
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- Seventy-year long record of monthly water balance estimates for Earth’s largest lake system H. Do et al. 10.1038/s41597-020-00613-z
- Going Beyond the Ensemble Mean: Assessment of Future Floods From Global Multi‐Models I. Giuntoli et al. 10.1029/2020WR027897
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- Observation‐Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming W. Liu et al. 10.1029/2020WR028830
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Latest update: 24 Apr 2024
Short summary
We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the...
