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HESS | Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 451–472, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 451–472, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 28 Jan 2020

Research article | 28 Jan 2020

Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates

Lei Gu et al.

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Cited articles

Ahmad, M. I., Sinclair, C. D., and Werritty, A.: Log-logistic flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 98, 205–224, 1988. 
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration – Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Fao, Rome, available at: http://www.scscourt.org/complexcivil/105CV049053/volume3/172618e_5xAGWAx8.pdf (last access: January 2020), 1998. 
Ayantobo, O. O., Li, Y., Song, S., and Yao, N.: Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961–2013, J. Hydrol., 550, 549–567, 2017. 
Ayantobo, O. O., Li, Y., Song, S., Javed, T., and Yao, N.: Probabilistic modelling of drought events in China via 2-dimensional joint copula, J. Hydrol., 559, 373–391, 2018. 
Below, R., Grover-Kopec, E., and Dilley, M.: Documenting drought-related disasters: a global reassessment, J. Environ. Dev., 16, 328–344, 2007. 
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Focusing on the multifaceted nature of droughts, this study quantifies the change in global drought risks for 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming trajectories by a multi-model ensemble under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Socioeconomic exposures are investigated by incorporating the dynamic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) into the drought impact assessment. The results show that even the ambitious 1.5 °C warming level can cause substantial increases on the global scale.
Focusing on the multifaceted nature of droughts, this study quantifies the change in global...
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